How the checks evolved

Sequence of the work, not calendar dates. All seven checks have results.

  1. Sequence 1

    Mission

    How tracking explains defending.

  2. Sequence 2

    Event EDA

    Twenty A-League matches. Shot rates about 18.5–18.7% in the low block, 9.0–9.3% medium, and 6.0% high. On-ball pressure runs from 2.2% of shots with none to 21.4% with very high pressure. Shot phases have a smaller box, about 148–166 m² smaller in the low block.

  3. Sequence 3

    Coupled two-graph test

    Defense proximity graph, attack Delaunay, Hungarian marking, supra-Laplacian. After width, length, area, nearest defender, and pressure, only supra-Laplacian λ₂ remained: residual −0.013, interval −0.022 to −0.004. Not a KPI.

  4. Sequence 4

    Seven sharper checks

    The next questions were split out of the block and graph results.

  5. Sequence 5

    Full-back tracking

    Tracked overlaps and underlaps were received 12.9 points less often (interval −0.250 to −0.015). Shots and xthreat do not separate. Keep as a reception metric.

  6. Sequence 6

    Overlaps and underlaps

    Runs that do not lead to a shot have a defender 1.33 m closer (interval −2.31 to −0.47). Goal-side and lane do not separate shots.

  7. Sequence 7

    Centre-backs drawn out

    Centre-backs are +1.60 m from their usual spot when the striker is marked within 3 m (interval 0.49 to 2.67). Midfielders and full backs do not clear zero. Tight marks coincide with +8.5 points of shots.

  8. Sequence 8

    Shadow screening

    High-block lane occupation (an opponent within 1.5 m) cuts forward completion by 27 points on 20 matches (63.7% vs 90.7%). Pass value does not drop. Busier passers are screened less. Facing is only two matches.

  9. Sequence 9

    Passing angle

    On 348 wide-to-central passes, first-line-break probability falls 0.041 per 10° (interval −0.050 to −0.032). Straighter lanes break the line. A larger angle does not.

  10. Sequence 10

    Body shape

    Two pose matches: 81.9% square or in front, 17.6% side-on, 0.5% back-to (7 events). Side-on receptions are +0.007 EPV versus square (interval 0.004 to 0.011). Underpowered. Not a KPI yet.

  11. Sequence 11

    Sight of goal

    Two pose matches, 536 attacking-third possessions. When at least half the goal is visible, the big-chance rate is 0.38 versus 0.19, difference 0.19 (interval 0.11 to 0.26). Mostly shoulder heading, not 0.25 m opponent circles. A film label, not a league KPI.

Next

  1. Film centre-backs when the striker is inside 3 m.
  2. Keep nearest-defender distance on overlaps, and the full-back tracking rule, as reception metrics.
  3. Treat a straight wide-to-midfield lane and an occupied high-block lane as the press findings that hold on 20 matches.
  4. Do not ship body shape or sight of goal until there is pose for more than two matches.

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