534 runs across 20 matches. 301 overlaps and 233 underlaps. 17.2% lead to a shot.
Non-shot runs have a defender 1.33 m closer: 4.84 m on non-shot runs versus 6.17 m on shot runs. Interval −2.31 to −0.47.
Goal-side position (56.9% of runs) and a defender in the lane (30.0%) do not separate shots, xthreat, or being beaten. Beaten-by-movement is rare (11 runs).
This is an association, not a prevention system. The useful metric is nearest-defender distance at the run, not lane or body-side. Keep that distance as a reception metric, not a shot model.
Overlaps and underlaps that did not lead to a shot had a defender 1.33 m closer (4.84 m vs 6.17 m). Is nearest-defender distance the thing to watch, rather than the lane or the body-side?
The earlier review treated beaten-by-movement as the practical stand-in for marking intent until pose coverage grows. Pose is only on two matches.